top of page

When your prediction is betrayed...

First of all, I'm very glad to inform you that Sky Business, Co. Ltd., renewed our education program. Fortunately, we could have favorable comments and feedback from the students. I'm still very busy for teaching and conducting research, but everything is going very well.

Indeed, we cannot predict the future accurately. Recently, my friend's friend has passed away due to depression though he was a college student. It's true he had suffered from mental problem, but no one never predicted he would die. His friends and I expected we could see him anytime very soon. However, our prediction was betrayed....

Prediction is one of the most crucial step in the process of decision-making. Prediction is, in other words, our mental simulation of how present situation will turn to future. Based on the simulation, we choose the best course of action. In many cases, such mental simulation looks like laboratory experiment under controlled conditions. As a result, our prediction tend to become over-expectation.

Again, we cannot predict the future accurately. However, humans have special ability to adjust unexpected happenings and events as far as our minds are flexible. A merit of learning Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) theories is not that we can make more accurate prediction. Rather, NDM teaches you how you should react when your prediction is betrayed. Many people still misunderstand this point.

bottom of page